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Weakly coupled atmosphere–ocean data assimilation in the Canadian global prediction system (v1)

机译:加拿大全球预测系统中的弱耦合大气 - 海洋数据同化(V1)

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A fully coupled atmosphere–ocean–ice model has been used to produce global weather forecasts at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) since November?2017. Currently, the system relies on four uncoupled data assimilation (DA) components for initializing the fully coupled global atmosphere–ocean–ice forecast model: atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST). The goal of the present study is to implement a weakly coupled data assimilation (WCDA) between the atmosphere and ocean components and evaluate its performance against uncoupled DA. The WCDA system uses coupled atmosphere–ocean–ice short-term forecasts as background states for the atmospheric and the ocean DA components that independently compute atmospheric and ocean analyses. This system leads to better agreement between the coupled atmosphere–ocean analyses and the coupled atmosphere–ocean–ice forecasts than between the uncoupled analyses and the coupled forecasts. The use of WCDA improves the atmospheric forecast score near the surface, but a slight increase in the atmospheric temperature bias is observed. A small positive impact from using the short-term SST forecast on the satellite radiance observation-minus-forecast statistics is noted. Ocean temperature and salinity forecasts are also improved near the surface. The next steps toward stronger DA coupling are highlighted.
机译:自11月以来,一家完全耦合的大气 - 海洋冰型模型已被用于在环境和气候变化的环境和气候变化中产生全球天气预报(ECCC)2017年。目前,该系统依赖于四个解耦数据同化(DA)组件,用于初始化完全耦合的全球气氛 - 海洋冰预测模型:大气,海洋,海冰和海上温度(SST)。本研究的目标是在大气和海洋组分之间实施弱耦合的数据同化(WCDA),并评估其对解耦DA的性能。 WCDA系统使用耦合的大气 - 海冰短期预测作为大气和海洋DA组件的背景状态,可独立地计算大气和海洋分析。该系统导致耦合的大气 - 海洋分析和耦合的大气冰预测之间更好地达成,而不是在解耦分析和耦合预测之间。 WCDA的使用改善了表面附近的大气预测得分,但观察到大气温度偏差略微增加。注意到使用对卫星辐射观察 - 减去预测统计数据的短期SST预测的小积极影响。在表面附近也有改善海洋温度和盐度预测。突出显示了更强大的DA耦合的下一步。

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