The Clausius‐Clapeyron relationship holds that the atmospheric water vapor content enhances with warming temperatures, suggesting intensifications of precipitable water and also altering runoff generation. Drought conditions are determined by variations in water fluxes such as precipitation and runoff, which tightly connect with temperature scaling characteristics. However, whether and how water fluxes' scaling with temperatures may affect the evolution of droughts under climate change has not yet been systematically investigated. This study develops a cascade modeling chain consisting of the climate model ensemble, bias correction technique, and hydrological models to investigate the precipitation and runoff scaling relationships with warming temperatures under the current (1961–2005) and future periods (2011–2055 and 2056–2100), as well as their implications on future drought changes across 151 catchments in China. The results show that (1) precipitation (runoff) scaling relationships with temperatures are stable during different time periods; (2) return level analysis indicates drought risks are projected to become (1–10 times) more severe across central and southern catchments, where the precipitation (runoff) strengthens with rising temperatures up to a peak point and then decline in a hotter environment. The northeastern and western catchments, where a monotonic increasing scaling type dominated, are accompanied by drought mitigations for two future periods; (3) future changes in hydrological droughts relative to the baseline are (1–5 times) larger than those in meteorological droughts. These results imply that changes in future drought risks are highly dependent on the present precipitation (runoff)‐temperature relationships, suggesting a meaningful implication of scaling types for future drought prediction. Plain Language Summary Drought hazards are determined by variations in water fluxes such as precipitation and runoff. Global climate warming has altered these terrestrial hydrological processes and subsequently changed drought conditions. Characterizing the responses of precipitation and runoff to warming climates and investigating their implications on future drought changes are important for drought early warning and prediction. Here we show that monthly precipitation and runoff either exhibit a monotonic increasing or the peak‐like structure (in which precipitation and runoff increase with warming temperatures up to a peak point and decline thereafter) with temperatures. The increasing relationship typically suggests future drought mitigation, while the hook structure type, which prevails in central and southern catchments in China, implies increasing drought risks. Our findings facilitate a better understanding of drought changes under climate change and provide a scientific basis for drought adaptation to climate change.
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