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Machine Learning Models for the Seasonal Forecast of Winter Surface Air Temperature in North America

机译:北美冬季表面空气温度季节性预测的机器学习模型

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In this study, two machine learning (ML) models (support vector regression (SVR) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)) are developed to perform seasonal forecasts of the surface air temperature (SAT) in winter (December‐January‐February, DJF) in North America (NA). The seasonal forecast skills of the two ML models are evaluated via cross validation. The forecast results from one linear regression (LR) model, and two dynamic climate models are used for comparison. In the take‐one‐out hindcast experiment, the two ML models and the LR model show reasonable seasonal forecast skills for winter SAT in NA. Compared to the two dynamic models, the two ML models and the LR model have better forecast skill for the winter SAT over central NA, which is mainly derived from a skillful forecast of the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of winter SAT over NA. In general, the SVR model and XGBoost model hindcasts show better forecast performances than the LR model. However, the LR model shows less dependence on the size of the training data set than the SVR and XGBoost models. In the real forecast experiments during the period of 2011–2017, the two ML models exhibit better forecasting skills for the winter SAT over northern and central NA than do the two dynamic models. The results of this study suggest that the ML models may provide improved forecasting skill for seasonal forecasts of the winter climate in NA.
机译:在本研究中,两种机器学习(ML)模型(支持向量回归(SVR)和极端梯度升压(XGBoost))是开发的,以在冬季(12月至2月 - 2月,DJF)进行地表空气温度(SAT)的季节性预测)在北美(NA)。通过交叉验证评估两个ML模型的季节性预测技能。预测来自一个线性回归(LR)模型,两个动态气候模型用于比较。在一次性的Hindcast实验中,两个ML模型和LR模型显示了冬季冬季的合理季节性预测技能。与两个动态模型相比,两个ML模型和LR模型具有更好的冬季中央NA预测技能,这主要来自冬季第二次经验正交功能(EOF)模式的熟练预测坐落于NA 。通常,SVR模型和XGBoost模型HindCasts比LR模型显示出更好的预测表现。但是,LR模型显示对培训数据集的大小的依赖性而不是SVR和XGBoost模型。在2011-2017期间的真实预测实验中,两种ML模型在冬季坐在北部和中央NA方面表现出更好的预测技能,而不是做两个动态模型。该研究的结果表明ML模型可以为NA中冬季气候的季节性预测提供改进的预测技能。

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