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Pervasive Warming Bias in CMIP6 Tropospheric Layers

机译:CMIP6对流层层的普遍变暖偏差

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The tendency of climate models to overstate warming in the tropical troposphere has long been noted. Here we examine individual runs from 38 newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6) models and show that the warm bias is now observable globally as well. We compare CMIP6 runs against observational series drawn from satellites, weather balloons, and reanalysis products. We focus on the 1979–2014 interval, the maximum span for which all observational products are available and for which models were run using historically observed forcings. For lower‐troposphere and midtroposphere layers both globally and in the tropics, all 38 models overpredict warming in every target observational analog, in most cases significantly so, and the average differences between models and observations are statistically significant. We present evidence that consistency with observed warming would require lower model Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) values. Plain Language Summary It has long been known that previous generations of climate models exhibit excessive warming rates in the tropical troposphere. With the release of the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6) climate model archive we can now update the comparison. We examined historical (hindcast) runs from 38 CMIP6 models in which the models were run using historically observed forcings. We focus on the 1979–2014 interval, the maximum for which all models and observational data are available and for which the models were run with historical forcings. What was previously a tropical bias is now global. All model runs warmed faster than observations in the lower troposphere and midtroposphere, in the tropics, and globally. On average, and in most individual cases, the trend difference is significant. Warming trends in models tend to rise with the model Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), and we present evidence that the distribution of ECS values across the model is unrealistically high.
机译:已经注意到气候模型在热带对流层中夸大升温的趋势。在这里,我们检查从38个新发布的耦合型号的Interpcomparison项目版本6(CMIP6)模型的个人运行,并显示温暖的偏差现在也是全球可观察的。我们比较CMIP6针对从卫星,天气气球和Reanalysis产品绘制的观察系列运行。我们专注于1979 - 2014年间隔,所有观察产品可用的最大跨度以及使用历史观察到的强制运行的型号。对于全球和热带地区的低层和中间层层,所有38种型号在每个目标观测模拟中覆盖着升温,在大多数情况下大多数情况下,模型和观察之间的平均差异是统计学意义。我们提出了一种有证据表明,观察到的变暖的一致性需要更低的模型平衡气候敏感度(ECS)值。简单的语言摘要已经众所周知,前几代气候模型在热带对流层中表现出过度的变暖速率。随着CMIP6的发布(耦合模型互通项目版本6)气候模型存档,我们现在可以更新比较。我们检查了历史(Hindcast)从38个CMIP6型号运行,其中使用历史观察的强制运行模型。我们专注于1979 - 2014年间隔,所有型号和观测数据的最大值都可以使用,并且模型与历史强制运行。以前是热带偏见现在是全球性的。所有型号在热带地区和全球范围内的较低对流层和中层之间的观察结果速度快得更快。平均而言,在大多数单独的情况下,趋势差异很大。模型的变暖趋势往往会随着模型平衡气候敏感性(ECS)升起,我们提出了证据表明,跨模型的ECS值分布是不切实际的。

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