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Observed and CMIP5‐Simulated Radiative Flux Variability Over West Africa

机译:观察到和CMIP5模拟辐射​​助流助焊剂在西非的变异性

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We explore the ability of general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to recreate observed seasonal variability in top‐of‐the‐atmosphere and surface radiation fluxes over West Africa. This tests CMIP5 models' ability to describe the radiative energy partitioning, which is fundamental to our understanding of the current climate and its future changes. We use 15 years of the monthly Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) product, alongside other satellite, reanalysis, and surface station products. We find that the CMIP5 multimodel mean is generally within the reference product range, with annual mean CMIP5 multimodel mean—EBAF of ?0.5 W?m?2 for top‐of‐the‐atmosphere reflected shortwave radiation, and 4.6?W?m?2 in outgoing longwave radiation over West Africa. However, the range in annual mean of the model seasonal cycles is large (37.2 and 34.0?W?m?2 for reflected shortwave radiation and outgoing longwave radiation, respectively). We use seasonal and regional contrasts in all‐sky fluxes to infer that the representation of the West African monsoon in numerical models affects radiative energy partitioning. Using clear‐sky surface fluxes, we find that the models tend to have more downwelling shortwave and less downwelling longwave radiation than EBAF, consistent with past research. We find models that are drier and have lower aerosol loading tend to show the largest differences. We find evidence that aerosol variability has a larger effect in modulating downwelling shortwave radiation than water vapor in EBAF, while the opposite effect is seen in the majority of CMIP5 models. Plain Language Summary The balance of incoming solar, or shortwave, radiation and longwave radiation emitted from the Earth's surface and atmosphere, is a fundamental variable of our climate system. It is therefore important for climate models to be able to reproduce the variability in radiative fluxes in order to have confidence in our ability to describe future climate, especially for vulnerable regions such as West Africa. In this study, we use 15 years of data from satellite instruments and surface stations to test how well climate models simulate observed variations in radiation over West Africa. We find that although the mean model behavior is similar to the observations (within 0.5?W?m?2, or 1%, for annual mean shortwave radiation, 4.6?W?m?2, or 2%, for longwave radiation), there is a large range model values. We link model‐observation differences to the progression of the West African monsoon, atmospheric water vapor, and aerosol. Concentrating on radiation reaching the surface under cloud‐free conditions, we find that models which are drier and have less aerosol have the largest differences in longwave radiation, and the relative impact of aerosols and water vapor on shortwave radiation differs between our reference and the models.
机译:我们探讨了耦合模型互通模式(CMIP5)中的一般循环模型的能力,以重新创建观察到的季节性可变性,在西非的大气层和表面辐射通量。这项测试CMIP5模型的描述能力描述辐射能量分区,这是我们对当前气候的理解和未来变化的基础。我们使用15年的月度云和地球的辐射能量系统能量平衡和填充(EBAF)产品,以及其他卫星,重新分析和地表产品。我们发现CMIP5多模型平均值通常在参考产品范围内,每年平均CMIP5多模型均值 - EBAFΔ0.5W≤M≤2,对于大气层反射的短波辐射,4.6?W?M? 2在向西非传出的长波辐射。然而,模型季节循环的年平均值的范围大(37.2和34.0?W≤2.对于反射的短波辐射和输出长波辐射)。我们在全天助焊剂中使用季节性和区域对比来推断,在数值模型中西非季风的代表会影响辐射能量分区。使用清澈的天空表面通量,我们发现模型往往具有比EBAF更遗憾的短波和较少的漫长的龙波辐射,与过去的研究一致。我们发现更干燥的型号,并且具有较低的气溶胶负载倾向于显示出最大的差异。我们发现据说气溶胶变异性在调节沉船短波辐射方面具有比EBAF的水蒸气的效果更大,而在大多数CMIP5模型中看到相反的效果。普通语言概述从地球表面和大气发出的传入太阳能,或短波,辐射和龙波辐射的余地是我们气候系统的基本变量。因此,对于气候模型来说能够重现辐射助焊剂的可变性是重要的,以便对我们描述未来气候的能力,特别适用于西非等脆弱地区。在这项研究中,我们使用来自卫星仪器和地表站的15年数据来测试气候模型如何模拟辐射辐射的变化。我们发现,虽然平均模型行为类似于观察结果(在0.5?W?m?2,或1%内,但为长波辐射4.6?w≤m≤2,或2%,对于长波辐射),有一个大的范围模型值。我们将模型观察差异链接到西非季风,大气水蒸气和气溶胶的进展。在无云条件下,浓缩辐射到达表面,我们发现更干燥并且具有更少的气溶胶的型号具有龙波辐射的最大差异,以及气溶胶和水蒸气对短波辐射的相对影响在我们的参考和模型之间不同。

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