Prediction of Suicide Attempts Using the Box-Jenkins Model

摘要

Objective: Suicide is a preventable social harm in the field of health. The present study aimed to design a predictionmodel for suicide incidence based on Box-Jenkins model in Ilam province.Method: Using a retrospective method all completed and attempted suicide data were collected during 1993-2013. Then,using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the time series analysis of the Box-Jenkins modelwas conducted to predict suicide status in the coming years (2014-2015).Results: According to the actual results obtained from the suicide data in 2014, a total of 1078 suicides were recordedand compared to the predicted results, according to the fitted model of the time series, which showed the selected modelpredicted 931 suicide cases, showing 86% accuracy of prediction. The series’ prediction indicated 931 suicides in 2014with a negative growth rate of 25.3% compared to 2013 and 969 suicide cases in 2015 with a positive growth rate of3.93% compared to 2014.Conclusion: The results of this study showed the designed model provides a high diagnostic value to predict suiciderates. These types of models can help to predict suicide in future and plan to control and prevent suicide attempts.