Can China’s food production capability meet her peak food demand in the future?

摘要

With the increase of food demand in China and the growth of world population, whether China can meet herpeak food demand in the future or not has become an issue worth study. By consolidating relevant factorsof food demand in China, the peak food demand is predicted to occur in 2036, and the peak food demandamount is predicted at 758.17 million tons by factor and synthetical analysis. Through factor consolidationand scenario test, the following policy implications have been unearthed: China’s food production capabilityis crucial to maintain her future food security; improving the gain yield is the key method; monitoringChina’s population change and formulating appropriate population policies are important; reducing foodwaste, curbing unreasonable consumption and promoting healthy and green diet are needed; constructionof high standard farmland will be significant in maintaining the food security; and excessive stored foodshould be de-stocked in a timely manner.