Determinants of a successful commodity contract: Evidence from the Indian agriculture futures market

摘要

In this study, I examine the determinants of a successful futures contract and explore whether an exhaustive checklist of criteria such as the one proposed by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) guarantees the success of a commodity contract. Using panel random-effects method on 30 agriculture futures contracts trading in India from 2003–2016, I find that volatility in spot prices is the most crucial determinant, followed by hedging effectiveness and open interest of a futures contract, whereas the size of the underlying spot market, compulsory settlement, and government-imposed ban on futures trading negatively impacts the success of futures contracts. This study has important implications for contract design and new product launches.