The paper presents key results regarding a possible reform of the Common Agricultural Policy direct payments, based on a scenario analysis by the CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact) modelling system. Combining aggregate programming models at the NUTS 2 level with a global spatial multi-commodity model, it enables depicting the impacts of different policy and economic scenarios from regional to the global scale. The paper discusses simulated impacts on farm income and agricultural markets from implementing the European flat rate hectare payment corrected for the purchasing power disparities across the Member States while reducing the overall budget outlays for direct payments by 50% and dismantling the remaining coupled support to ruminants. The results are an outcome of a comparative static analysis against a reference scenario which assumes the Health Check policy in 2020. The model results suggest a drop of the agricultural gross value added by 9% at the aggregate EU27 level compared to the reference scenario. Impacts differ between the Member States groups, Member States and regions, depending on the share of premiums in the income from agriculture, specialization and competitiveness of production. The largest reduction is projected for the suckler cow herd, dropping by 6% compared to the reference scenario. The drop is caused by removing the coupled support and affecting mostly the herds in Spain and France.
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