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首页> 外文期刊>Biota Neotropica >Fostering capacity building on Scenarios and Modelling on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services to Support Human Well-Being
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Fostering capacity building on Scenarios and Modelling on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services to Support Human Well-Being

机译:促进在生物多样性和生态系统服务中的情景和建模的能力建设,以支持人类福祉

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Predictive models have become important tools for examiningthe way that systems are likely to react to environmental and policychanges while exploring uncertainties. Even considering the limits oftheir predictability (mostly because of data availability, and incapacityof anticipating unforeseeable events), foresight approaches becamea very useful tool to increase the knowledge, engage stakeholdersand create anticipatory intelligence. Therefore, they are increasinglybeing used to study the possible effects of human actions on Earth,its biodiversity and associated ecosystem services. Such models aretypically based on a set of assumptions, so-called scenarios, whichprovide an approach for exploring how plausible alternative futures mayunfold and comparing the potential consequences of different decisionsin different future contexts.
机译:预测模型已成为审查系统可能在探索不确定性的同时对环境和制造硬化作出反应的重要工具。甚至考虑到了人类可预测性的限制(主要是因为数据可用性,并且预期不可预见的事件的禁止期权),远见方法都是为了增加知识的非常有用的工具,从事利益相关者创造了预期的智力。因此,他们正在越来越多地用于研究人类行为对地球,其生物多样性和相关生态系统服务的可能影响。这些模型基于一系列假设,所谓的场景,这是一种探索一种探索合理替代期货的方法,可以获得和比较不同DECISINES的不同未来环境的潜在后果。

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