Ensuring the stability of rail transport under cargo turnover uncertainty

摘要

railway transportation as a system element of an integrated intellectual production system is considered. The models of cargo turnover planning under uncertainty of execution of contracts on shipment and supply of manufactured products are formalized. The models and methods of ensuring the stability of rail transport under cargo turnover uncertainty are proposed. The formal statement of task, characteristics of uncertainty and methods based on probabilistic scheme, the scheme of "Game with Nature" and a zero-sum game with an active enemy are reviewed. The methods of risk assessment in the implementation of the developed cargo turnover plan are proposed. It’s suggested to use this scheme for the engineering of management ?New Silk Way ? through the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union.