The epidemic characteristics and spatial autocorrelation analysis of hand, foot and mouth disease from 2010 to 2015 in Shantou, Guangdong, China

摘要

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is the highest incidence of infectious diseases in China. Shantou is one of the most infected cities. Therefore, it is necessary for us to understand the epidemic characteristics and distribution trend of HFMD in Shantou. The purpose of this study is to investigate the spatial epidemiological characteristics of HFMD and analyse its spatial autocorrelation. We collated and summarised the data of HFMD in Shantou from 2010 to 2015. SaTScan software and Moran's I were used to analyse the spatial correlation of HFMD, and the results were presented in ArcMap. The distribution of HFMD in Shantou was of a seasonal trend, mainly concentrating during May and June. Children under 5-years-old were the main group of cases of HFMD, accounting for 92.46%. The proportion of infected children, especially those aged zero to 1, was the largest in each year, accounting for 45.62%, meaning that smaller children were more susceptible to HFMD. The number of male patients with HFMD was greater than that of females (1.78:1, male: female). With regard to the potential impact of patients' living style on the incidence rate of HFMD, this study revealed that scattered children were the dominant infected population, accounting for as much 84.49% of cases. The incidence of HFMD was unevenly distributed among streets. The incidence interval of streets was in a range of 13.76/100,000 to 1135.19/100,000. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was no global spatial correlation in Shantou, except in 2013. The results of local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that H-H correlation existed in the high incidence local area of Shantou. The incidence of HFMD across the various streets in Shantou not only varied widely but also represented local autocorrelation. Attention, as well as prevention and control measures, should be focused on those high-incidence areas, such as the Queshi street, Zhuchi street and Xinjin street.