Statistical Analysis of Influences of ICT on Industrial Structure Changes from 1985 through 2005: The Case of Japan

摘要

—The purpose of this study is to analyze the role that information and communication technology (ICT) has played in changes of Japanese industrial structure; this analysis will be conducted by statistical analysis on inputoutput (IO) tables. In this study, we focus on ICT capital stock as the key driver, where ICT capital stock comprises computers (including computer accessories) and telecommunications equipment available during 1985 to 2005. Constrained multivariate regression (CMR) modeling is employed for analysis. A likelihood ratio test (LRT) is used for evaluating the statistical significance of model. At the macro level, this study analyzes the results of LRT calculations; at the micro level, this study analyzes the changes of IO coefficients. LRT calculation results confirms that the explanatory variables (computers, main parts and accessories; telecommunications equipment) induced structural changes in most (jointly, in all) Japanese industrial sectors from 1985 through 2005. The CMR model results show that the impact of these explanatory variables on the IO coefficients differed by sector. These differing effects reveal that internal factors in industrial sectors are more complex than macro-level factors and that further investigation is needed to clarify the discovered micro-level differences.