Gaussian Model to Predict the Risk of Developing Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Mexican Population Taking as a Reference Risk Factors

摘要

In this research work, an ordinal Gaussian model is constructed, whose objective is to predict the degree of risk of contracting type 2 diabetes mellitus (2DM), taking as reference the risk factors in the Mexican population. It is estimated that the Mexican population has a hereditary susceptibility to develop 2DM, however, the probability increases depending on risk factors; area of residence, background of parents with 2DM, tobacco consumption, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, body mass index (BMI), and type of feeding, which, despite positively intervening in the appearance of 2DM, they can be modified to obtain the inversely proportional effect. However, the social, economic and political context are important components for the population. Risk factors, as explanatory elements of the prevalence of 2DM, are of the utmost importance to delay or control their early development, as some are factors that can be muffled. For the development of this model, the information published in the National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT) of 2012 was taken, based on the adult population 20 years of age or older. Among the most outstanding results is the higher prevalence of risk that women have with respect to men, and the fact that age is a fundamental basis for contracting type 2 diabetes mellitus.