Comparative Study of Dynamics of Women of Child-bearing Age in Nigeria

摘要

The aim of this research work is to observe the changes in the population structure and distribution of Nigeria within one score years and a decade (1991 – 2020) by identifying the proportion of the Nigerian population that is women within the child-bearing age (15 – 49 years). The work uses three different population growth models – Exponential Growth Model, Hyperbolic Growth Model and a revised Exponential Growth Model – on the population data. The work compares the population distribution from 1991 to 2020 graphically for all the three growth models to see the one that best fits the data which was used to predict the population for the year 2020. Having obtained the proportion for each state, we built maps for 1991 and 2020 using ArcGIS software. The results show which states had highest number of women in child-bearing age in the different years as well as the states with the least number of women in child-bearing age. From the map, we noticed that states like Lagos, Kano and Rivers remained in the Red zone (higher population of women of child-bearing age) while the likes of FCT, Nassarawa and Yobe did not move out of the Blue zone (lower population). With the results of this research, an idea of how Nigeria’s population will be in the coming years especially in terms of the prospect of population growth, fertility, etc. can be known and planned for. Background: The varying stance of researchers on the best model to use for population projections is one of the motivations for engaging on this project. More so, we tried to access specific data on the population of women in the child-bearing age in the country but this appears not to be available. Such a critical statistical information ought to be readily available hence, we took the leap to make this valuable contribution to the body of knowledge because information on the number of women in child-bearing age is information on the possible future population. This can also be used to study other concepts like child-woman ratio and mean age of mothers. This project goes further to x-ray the cohort on a state-by-state basis using spatial representation on a map. It groups states into three zones to depict the number of cohort in the states so as to show which states fall into the different zones. Another aspect of this work is the comparative study of the number of cohort in the 1991 population against that in the 2020 projected population. Projection here is based on the best model established early in this work.