A Statistical Forecasting Approach to Metapopulation Viability Analysis

摘要

Conservation efforts are aided by reliable forecasts of extinction risk, underfuture environmental conditions and management actions. We conducted a sta-tistical metapopulation viability analysis for the federally threatened Chiricahualeopard frog, propagating relevant sources of uncertainty. Our results suggestedthat without management intervention, extinction risk could be as high as 37% byyear 2066. However, pond restoration reduced the upper limit on extinction riskto as low as 2%. Our approach allows management decisions to be made with amore complete understanding of the uncertainty around the intended effect ofeach management decision.