Research on the Sustainable Development of an Economic-Energy-Environment (3E) System Based on System Dynamics (SD): A Case Study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in China

摘要

The sustainable development of an economic-energy-environment (3E) system has received increasing attention by the government because it both determines national development and individuals’ health at the macro and micro level. In this paper, we synthetically consider various important factors based on analysis of the existing literature and use system dynamics (SD) to establish models of sustainable development of a 3E system. The model not only clearly shows the complex logical relationship between the factors but also reveals the process of the 3E system. In addition, the paper provides a case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China by using a scenario analysis method. The models proposed in this paper can facilitate an understanding of the sustainable development pattern of a 3E coordination system and help to provide references for policy-making institutions. The results show that the long-term development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region’s 3E system is not sustainable, but it can be changed through the adjustment of the energy structure and an increase in investment in environmental protection, which can improve the environmental quality and ensure continuous growth rather than excessive growth of energy consumption and the gross domestic product (GDP).