Evolutionary Mechanism and Information Supervision of Public Opinions in Internet Emergency

摘要

This paper studies evolutionary mechanism and information supervision of public opinions in Internet emergency. The netizen behaviors are characterized by observation, imitation and learning, which well fits the hypothesis of bounded rationality in evolutionary games. In this paper, we define the “netizen acceptance degree” in cases of some social hot topics as the payoff in factor games, and build the evolutionary equation of public opinions, which is the infectious diseases diffusion model with changing population size. After that, we apply the theoretical model to the evolutionary course of pubic opinions in a real Internet emergency case, i.e., the “10.24 Self-sacrifice Event” in China. The effects of Internet information supervision and control measures for social affairs on the evolutionary course of public opinions are discussed based on results of numerical simulation.