The Accuracy and Effectiveness of Securities Analysts’ Pricing Forecast—Empirical Research based on A-share IPOs

摘要

Securities analysts’ pricing forecast for IPOs is the important basis for investors to judge the value of IPOs. Different from previous research, this paper focuses on securities analyst pricing forecast, based on the IPOs’ data, estimates a simultaneous equations model with securities analysts’ pricing forecast accuracy, dispersion of forecast and IPO premium. The results show that: there is a significant negative correlation between securities analysts’ pricing forecast accuracy and dispersion, and both of them are affected by analyst following; securities analysts’ pricing forecast accuracy and dispersion have a significant impact on IPO premium, which proves the effectiveness of securities analysts pricing forecast behavior, and analysts can help investors better value IPOs.