Sea Level Rise Flood Zones: Mitigating Floods in Surabaya Coastal Area

摘要

Sea level rise (SLR) brings with it a negative impact towards Surabaya's coastal area as this particular part of the city is situated only 0-3 meters above sea level. The amount of damage due to the floods indicates the city's level of readiness in facing threats from the flood. With flood height up to 90 centimeters, it is necessary to classify flood risk levels in an attempt to reduce the impact that will occur.This paper identify sea level rise by using least square regression, which generates the trend and prediction of sea level rise. The next analysis is the identification of a potentially disaster due to sea level rise by using multinomial logistic regression. Identification of flood hazard characteristics through weighted-overlay analysis using flood height and duration as variables. It also identifies factors influencing vulnerability using Delphi analysis. AHP Expert is then employed to calculate the weight of each factor. Vulnerable zones are determined using overlay-weighted-sum on each vulnerable factor. These results are then mapped using Raster Calculator method, placing emphasis on risk functions influenced by hazard and vulnerability.The final result is a flood risk zone map which identifies 5 risk levels according to the National Disaster Mitigation Guidance.