The climate change implication on Jordan: A case study using GIS and Artificial Neural Networks for weather forecasting

摘要

The meteorological data such as rainfall and temperatures, covering the period between 1979 and 2008, has been analyzed. The data were simulated using the geographic information systems (GIS) and computer software ''MATLAB''. The output results were converted into geographical maps. Three parameters were analyzed: annual mean maximum temperature, annual mean minimum temperature, and mean annual rainfall during the period (1979-2008). The analyzed results were also used to forecast for the period (2009-2018). The results show that no change has occurred in the mean annual rainfall in both northern and eastern part, while it has increased in the central region of Jordan. Although local temperatures fluctuate naturally, but over the past 50 years, the mean local temperature in Jordan has increased rapidly since 1992 by 1.5-2^oC. It is noticed from the data that the change in both maximum and minimum temperatures has clearly begun after 1991, in which this phenomenon may give an indication of changing point in climate of Jordan. As for prediction is concern, the show continuous increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures in the eastern, northern and southern regions of Jordan. The application of GIS in this study was successfully used to analyze the data and to produce 'easy to use' maps to understand the impact of global warming. This application is the first in terms of its applicability in Jordan. The authors believe that the results of this study will be of great help to the decision makers in the field of environment in Jordan.