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Modeling Multivariate Time Series with Univariate Seasonal Components

机译:使用单变量季节成分建模多元时间序列

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This work focused on method of modeling multivariate time series with seasonal univariate components. Five variables representing Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Products (GDP) were found to exhibit seasonal behaviours. These series were subjected to Box and Jenkins techniques and different univariate seasonal models were entertained for each component. The residuals from the fitted univariate models were cross examined. The correlation and cross correlation structures of these residuals revealed the inter-relationships among the variables, and multivariate consideration was therefore obvious. Multivariate order selection technique was employed to obtain the vector autoregressive (VAR) order of the model. A VAR (1) model was identified and developed to fit the data. Stability of the VAR process was achieved. Diagnostic checks were applied to the fitted model and the model was found to be adequate. Hence, forecasts were generated.
机译:这项工作的重点是用季节单变量分量对多元时间序列建模的方法。发现五个代表尼日利亚国内生产总值的变量表现出季节性行为。这些系列接受了Box和Jenkins技术的检验,每个组件都采用了不同的单变量季节性模型。对拟合的单变量模型的残差进行交叉检查。这些残差的相关和互相关结构揭示了变量之间的相互关系,因此多变量考虑是显而易见的。采用多元顺序选择技术来获得模型的向量自回归(VAR)顺序。确定并开发了VAR(1)模型以拟合数据。 VAR过程的稳定性得以实现。对拟合的模型进行诊断检查,发现该模型足够。因此,生成了预测。

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