The Effects of Occupational Aspirations and Other Factors on the Out-Migration of Rural Youth

摘要

Out-migration of youth from rural areas persists as one of the most serious threats to the sustainability of rural communities. This study provides a more rigorous examination than has been previously possible of whether occupational aspirations held by youth affect their long-term out-migration. The analysis is accomplished by examining the effects of occupational aspirations and known predictors of migration with five logistic regression models. We utilize data on rural youth in the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79) which include a measure of occupational aspirations at a youthful age and allow for a long-term measure of subsequent migration. Results show that rural youth aspiring to professional and managerial occupations are more likely to be rural out-migrants at age 35 than are youth aspiring to blue collar occupations. This greater likelihood is true even with other recognized influences on migration being controlled. Other variables introduced in our logistic models are gender, race/ethnicity, mother's education, length of residence, change in educational status, change in marital status, and actual occupation at age 35. We find that the effects of these variables on migration out of rural places largely persist when occupational aspirations are controlled. Our findings further substantiate the need for rural communities to increase career opportunities in professional and managerial occupations in order to reduce the out-migration of a large and vital segment of rural youth. Better knowledge about the odds of out-migration for other important determinants of migration should also be helpful in efforts to lessen the loss of rural youth. Keywords: rural out-migration, NLSY79, occupational aspirations, Blue collar, managerial, professional