Agricultural Commercialization and Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability in Semi-Arid Central Tanzania

摘要

Aims: The study was conducted to investigate the implications of smallholder agricultural commercialization on adaptation to climate change in semi-arid central Tanzania. Study Design: Descriptive survey and observational designs were used in this study. Moreover, analytical design was used to analyze the trends of climate and commercialization in the area. Place and Duration of Study: Hembahemba and Manyata villages in Kongwa district, Dodoma region, Tanzania were selected for the study. The study was conducted between October 2012 and October 2013. Methodology: A variety of methods were used in the study including participatory assessment techniques, field visits and household surveys. Primary data collection involved the use of key informant interviews, household questionnaires, focus group discussions and field observations. Secondary data were collected through literature and documentary review. Temperature and rainfall data from 1970 to 2012 were analysed by simple linear regression performed using Microsoft Excel. Non-numeric data were coded and analyzed by Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). Household Commercialization Index (HCI) was used to analyze levels of agricultural commercialization. Results: The experience of the interviewed respondents on rainfall and temperature trends corresponded to the analysis of climatic data from Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA). The analysis indicated an increase of temperature at a rate of 0.0137°C annually for the past 42 years and a decrease of rainfall at a rate of 1.5062mm annually from 1983 to 2012. However, rainfall decreased more rapidly at a rate of 4.597mm annually between 1995 and 2012, putting agricultural sector into risk. On the other side, agricultural commercialization influenced mechanization and changes of agricultural practices in diverse ways. Changes, such as abandonment of mixed farming and drought tolerant traditional crop varieties exposed the farmers into risks of climatic shocks while changes on tillage practices and crop diversification contributed to adaptation. Conclusion: Taking into account the climatic changes and market forces, it is likely that agricultural diversification can further contribute to resilience.