Cause Analysis and Prediction of the Groundwater Level in Jinghuiqu Irrigation District

摘要

Groundwater environmentevolution can comprehensively reflect groundwater dynamics. Based on therelationship between the groundwater system and the external environment in Jinghuiquirrigation district, adopting the Principal Component Analysis method, variationcharacteristics of environmental factors including climate and human activityand their impact on groundwater were systematically analyzed. The results showthat groundwater level in Jinghuiqu irrigation district has been significantly droppedin nearly 34 years; the reduction of surface water irrigation use, whichreduced the amounts of groundwater recharge and destroyed the water balance, isconsidered as the most direct cause for falling of regional groundwater level.Besides, reduction in precipitation, increase of evaporation also acceleratedthe declining of the groundwater level at some extent. Finally, a predictingmethod of groundwater depth based on BP neural network is developed. Theexperimental results show that the predicting model can reasonablely predictthe groundwater level in Jinghuiqu irrigation district with a high precision.