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Assessment of China's Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Target for 2030: Possibility of Earlier Peaking

机译:中国2030年温室气体减排目标评估:更早达到峰值的可能性

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Whether China's Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reduction target “to peak around 2030” is “fair, ambitious and adequate” or not depends on how much emphasis be placed on the historical responsibilities. However, China's peak in coal consumption may come earlier than expected, thereby advancing the peak of CO_(2) emission to come before 2030. In fact, the calculation based on the recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China released indicates that its coal consumption and CO_(2) emission (from fossil fuels) have almost flatted in 2014. Moreover, National Bureau of Statistics of China has upwardly adjusted the data for energy consumption and coal consumption in 2013, which led to confusion in its interpretation. Although it is difficult to say anything definite at this moment, the issue of upward adjustment of statistical data until 2013 and the recent declining trend of coal consumption and, possibly CO_(2) emission (from fossil fuels) can be discussed separately. All things considered, it seems more appropriate to assume that, in China, the coal consumption and CO_(2) emission are not likely to show significant increases in the future.
机译:中国的“温室气体”减排目标“达到2030年左右达到峰值”是否“公平,雄心勃勃,足够”,取决于对历史责任的重视程度。但是,中国的煤炭消费峰值可能比预期的要早,从而提前了2030年之前的CO_(2)排放峰值。实际上,根据中国国家统计局发布的最新数据计算, 2014年,煤炭消耗和化石燃料产生的CO_(2)排放几乎持平。此外,中国国家统计局已将2013年能源消耗和煤炭消耗的数据向上调整,这导致其解释混乱。尽管目前尚无定论,但可以分别讨论直到2013年的统计数据上调和近期煤炭消费量下降以及可能的CO_(2)排放(化石燃料)下降的问题。考虑到所有因素,似乎更合适的假设是,中国的煤炭消耗和CO_(2)排放在未来不太可能显着增加。

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