Applying Lessons from Avian Ecology to Herpetological Research: Techniques for Analyzing Nest Survival due to Predation

摘要

Estimating and characterizing patterns in reproductive rates is a research priority for many animal taxa given the importance of reproduction for population persistence. For nest-laying organisms such as birds and turtles, nest depredation is often the primary cause of poor recruitment. The avian literature features many statistical techniques, ranging from descriptive estimators to more complicated modeling frameworks, specifically designed to quantify patterns of nest survival. Although these techniques are broadly accepted and commonly used by avian ecologists, they have not been widely adopted in herpetological research. Here, we provide an overview of nest survival analyses developed in the avian literature to highlight their potential utility in herpetological studies. We then apply the logistic exposure model to estimate and characterize patterns of nest survival for Blanding's Turtles (Emydoidea blandingii) and Bog Turtles (Glyptemys muhlenbergii), both of which are species of conservation concern. Using this model, we documented strong effects of spatiotemporal factors on nest depredation that would have been difficult to identify using traditional approaches employed by herpetologists. We suggest that more modern nest success analysis techniques, such as the logistic exposure model and the Program MARK nest survival model, will be useful to herpetologists interested in examining patterns of nest depredation and success. Applying these models will facilitate the development of conservation priorities and approaches for managing nest survival in herpetofauna.