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Causal diagrams, information bias, and thought bias

机译:因果图,信息偏见和思想偏见

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Abstract: Information bias might be present in any study, including randomized trials, because the values of variables of interest are unknown, and researchers have to rely on substitute variables, the values of which provide information on the unknown true values. We used causal directed acyclic graphs to extend previous work on information bias. First, we show that measurement is a complex causal process that has two components, ie, imprinting and synthesizing. Second, we explain how the unknown values of a variable may be imputed from other variables, and present examples of valid and invalid substitutions for a variable of interest. Finally, and most importantly, we describe a previously unrecognized bias, which may be viewed as antithetical to information bias. This bias arises whenever a variable does not exist in the physical world, yet researchers obtain “information” on its nonexistent values and estimate nonexistent causal parameters. According to our thesis, the scientific literature contains many articles that are affected by such bias.
机译:摘要:在任何研究中,包括随机试验中,都可能存在信息偏差,因为目标变量的值是未知的,研究人员必须依靠替代​​变量,该变量的值提供有关未知真实值的信息。我们使用因果有向无环图来扩展先前关于信息偏差的工作。首先,我们表明测量是一个复杂的因果过程,具有两个部分,即印记和合成。其次,我们解释了如何从其他变量中推断出变量的未知值,并给出了有效和无效替代感兴趣变量的示例。最后,最重要的是,我们描述了以前无法识别的偏见,可以将其视为与信息偏见相对的。每当物理世界中不存在变量时,就会产生这种偏见,但是研究人员会获得有关其不存在的值的“信息”,并估计不存在的因果参数。根据我们的论文,科学文献中包含许多受这种偏见影响的文章。

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