Factors Influencing the Conversion of Arable Land to Urban Use and Policy Implications in Beijing, China

摘要

Rapid urban land expansion and the resulting arable land loss have put food security in China at risk. This paper investigates the characteristics and mechanism of arable land conversion in Beijing using a logistic model based on land-use data for 2001 and 2010. The results suggest that (1) arable land conversion tends to occur near built-up areas, city centers and major roads; (2) arable land that lies closer to irrigation canals and country roads is less likely to be converted to urban use; (3) arable land that is bigger in size and has a more regular shape has a lower probability of conversion to urban use; and (4) the Prime Farmland Protection policy and related land-use plan have played a positive role in preserving arable land, demonstrated by the probability for arable land conversion inside a prime farmland boundary is 63.9 percent less than for land outside the boundary. Based on these findings and on sustainable-development principles, we suggest that, rather than an exclusive focus on controlling the quantity of arable land, the location and characteristics of the arable land should be a primary consideration when designing urban policies and plans.