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Assessment of SSA predictions of Earth temperature records

机译:评估SSA对地球温度记录的预测

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In this paper, the forecasts of Earth temperature records made by A. Pepelyshev and A. Zhigljavsky in 2009 are compared with the data actually observed during 2010–2014. It is demonstrated that the forecasts made in 2009 are quite accurate. In the second part, the SSA-based change-point detection algorithm proposed by Moskvina and Zhigljavsky in 2003 is applied to the same temperature records data. The results show that the data does not have essential structural breaks except perhaps a small rise of general level of temperatures at around 1998.
机译:在本文中,将A. Pepelyshev和A. Zhigljavsky在2009年所做的地球温度记录预报与2010-2014年间实际观察到的数据进行了比较。事实证明,2009年的预测非常准确。在第二部分中,将Moskvina和Zhigljavsky在2003年提出的基于SSA的变化点检测算法应用于相同的温度记录数据。结果表明,该数据没有必要的结构性断裂,只是1998年左右总体温度水平可能出现小幅上升。

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