Short-Term Forecasting of Nigeria Inflation Rates Using Seasonal ARIMA Model

摘要

This paper considers the analyses and forecasting of the monthly All-items (Year-on-Year change) Inflation Rates in Nigeria. The data used for this study are monthly All-items Inflation rates from 2000 to 2015 collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria. Analyses reveal that the Inflation rates of Nigeria are seasonal and follow a seasonal ARIMA Model, (0, 1, 0) x (0, 1, 1)_(12). The model is shown to be adequate and the forecast obtained from it are shown to agree closely with the original observations.