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Improved prediction in finite population sampling using convex combination of parametric and non-parametric models

机译:使用参数和非参数模型的凸组合改进有限人口抽样中的预测

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We consider inference for sampling from a finite population when information on auxiliary variables is available. In such situations it is well known that both model based and model assisted approaches perform better than the purely design-based approach provided the assumed model that links study variable and auxiliary variables is appropriate. An approach based on non-parametric regression is robust against model specification and performs well when the sample size is large. However, for small to medium sample sizes a parametric model-based or model-assisted approach performs better even if the assumed parametric model is not the correct one. In this paper, we propose a compromise approach that considers a convex combination of a parametric and a non-parametric model where the weight for the parametric model is determined based on its adequacy. We determine the optimal weight by minimizing the cross-validation based prediction error. We illustrate the use of this idea in the case of the stratified simple random sampling design and the probability proportional to size sampling design. Using simulations, we show that our approach provides predictions that are better than both the purely parametric model based and the purely non-parametric model based predictions.
机译:当辅助变量的信息可用时,我们考虑从有限总体中进行推理。在这种情况下,众所周知,基于模型的方法和基于模型的方法都比单纯基于设计的方法要好,前提是假设将研究变量和辅助变量联系起来的假定模型是合适的。基于非参数回归的方法对模型规范具有鲁棒性,并且在样本量较大时效果良好。但是,对于中小样本量,即使假定的参数模型不是正确的模型,基于参数模型或模型辅助的方法也可以执行得更好。在本文中,我们提出了一种折衷方法,该方法考虑了参数模型和非参数模型的凸组合,其中参数模型的权重基于其适当性来确定。我们通过最小化基于交叉验证的预测误差来确定最佳权重。我们说明了在分层简单随机抽样设计和与大小抽样设计成比例的概率的情况下该想法的使用。通过仿真,我们证明了我们的方法所提供的预测要好于基于纯参数模型的预测和基于纯非参数模型的预测。

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