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Forecast of China Population under Different Fertility Policy

机译:不同生育政策下的中国人口预测

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In this paper, we use queue elements prediction and forecasting software PADIS-INT, set three different fertility programs, and predict China’s total population and the trends of population structural change in 2015-2050, based on the fifth and sixth national census data. The results show that since implementation of the two-child family planning policy, the aging trend of the population structure will be significantly improved, and after 2030 our population structure will be gradually younger. In view of the problem of population sex ratio imbalance, we verified it, and the results showed that by 2020 there will be a bachelor phenomenon, but the number did not report as much. Finally, we gave a brief summary and recommendations for our studies.
机译:在本文中,我们使用队列元素预测和预测软件PADIS-INT,设置了三个不同的生育程序,并根据第五次和第六次全国人口普查数据预测了2015-2050年的中国总人口和人口结构变化趋势。结果表明,自从实行二胎计划生育政策以来,人口结构的老龄化趋势将得到明显改善,到2030年,我国人口结构将逐步年轻化。针对人口性别比失衡的问题,我们对此进行了验证,结果表明,到2020年将出现单身现象,但人数并没有那么多。最后,我们对研究进行了简短的总结和建议。

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