Racially Polarized Voting in a Southern U.S. Election: How Urbanization and Residential Segregation Shape Voting Patterns

摘要

This paper advances a model of racially polarized voting that captures the intervening effects of urbanization and residential segregation on white votersa€? political behavior. The model is tested for a 2011 referendum election in the U.S. state of Mississippi. Using Kinga€?s method of ecological inference and weighted least squares regression, we find that regional minority population size impacts white opposition to minority-preferred political alternatives both directly and indirectly through an effect on residential racial segregation. Importantly, these influences hinge on intra-regional patterns of urbanization. The findings have important implications for understanding spatial variation in regional political behavior and intergroup relations.