Risk Analysis Simulation Model of Economic Evaluation in Hydroelectric Engineering Project

摘要

In this study, we propose a risk analysis simulation model for economic evaluation of hydroelectric engineering project. This model takes annual energy outputs as risk elements. It submits to Pearson-III distribution similar with the annual runoff. Take data from three typical years to estimate the distribution parameters and then yearly benefits can be simulated in given period. By discounting all the annual benefits to their present values and summing them up, the total benefit present value is worked out. Simulating the process for a large number of times, the probability distribution is obtained. And the Net Present Value (NPV) distribution can be figured out as well.