The Implications for Renewable Energy Innovation of Doubling the Share of Renewables in the Global Energy Mix between 2010 and 2030

摘要

Benefits of increasing the renewable energy (RE) share in the total energy mix include better energy security, carbon dioxide emission reductions and improved human health. This paper identifies the potential of RE technologies and role of innovation to double the global RE share from 18% to 36% between 2010 and 2030. As a first step, a Reference Case is developed based on national energy plans of 26 countries which increases the RE share to 21% by 2030. Next, the realizable potential of RE technologies is estimated beyond the Reference Case at country and sector levels. By aggregating country potentials, this paper reveals that the global RE share can double to 36% by 2030. Despite differences in starting points and resource potentials, there is a role for each country in achieving a doubling. For many countries their Reference Cases result in low RE shares and many countries are just beginning to explore ways to increase RE use. The paper identifies action areas where innovation can increase technology development and improve cost-effectiveness, thereby accelerating global RE deployment. More research is required to specify these action areas for individual countries and specific technologies, as well as to identify policy needs to address them.