Prevention and control of major non-communicable diseases in China from 1990 to 2009: results of a two-round Delphi survey

摘要

Objective: The aim of this study was to learn about the progress of the prevention and control of major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China from 1990 to 2009 and to determine what prevention and control gaps remain based on the opinions of a group of panellists.Design: Sixty-four panellists, who are members of the Subcommittee of the Non-Communicable Diseases, the Expert Committee on Disease Control and Prevention established by China's Ministry of Health in 2010, were invited to participate in an email-based, two-round Delphi survey. In each round, a structured questionnaire was given to participants, who were asked to rate the importance and practical implementation of items relevant to the prevention and control of NCDs over two periods, 1990–1999 and 2000–2009, on a 10-point scale.Results: Of the 64 panellists invited, 20 (31.3%) completed the first-round survey, and, of those, 14 (70.0%) completed the second-round survey. Of the 237 common variables in the two survey rounds, there were 161 (67.9%) and 209 (88.2%) with an interquartile range ≤2 in the first round and second round, respectively. These results indicated a better expert consensus in the second round. There were 92 items in total in the second round of the questionnaire, 88 (95.7%) of which had median importance rating scores of equal to or greater than 7.00. The median scores for the practical implementation items during 2000–2009 were greater than those for the 1990–1999 period. The results indicate improved implementation in the recent decade.Conclusions: China has made progress in the prevention and control of NCDs during the 21st century. However, these intuitive rating results indicate that there are still large action gaps in the fight against epidemic NCDs in China.