An Estimate of the Global Burden of Anthropogenic Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter on Premature Human Mortality Using Atmospheric Modeling

摘要

Background Ground-level concentrations of ozone (O₃) and fine particulate matter [≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM_2.5)] have increased since preindustrial times in urban and rural regions and are associated with cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. Objectives We estimated the global burden of mortality due to O₃ and PM_2.5 from anthropogenic emissions using global atmospheric chemical transport model simulations of preindustrial and present-day (2000) concentrations to derive exposure estimates. Methods Attributable mortalities were estimated using health impact functions based on long-term relative risk estimates for O₃ and PM_2.5 from the epidemiology literature. Using simulated concentrations rather than previous methods based on measurements allows the inclusion of rural areas where measurements are often unavailable and avoids making assumptions for background air pollution. Results Anthropogenic O₃ was associated with an estimated 0.7 ± 0.3 million respiratory mortalities (6.3 ± 3.0 million years of life lost) annually. Anthropogenic PM_2.5 was associated with 3.5 ± 0.9 million cardiopulmonary and 220,000 ± 80,000 lung cancer mortalities (30 ± 7.6 million years of life lost) annually. Mortality estimates were reduced approximately 30% when we assumed low-concentration thresholds of 33.3 ppb for O₃ and 5.8 μg/m3 for PM_2.5. These estimates were sensitive to concentration thresholds and concentration–mortality relationships, often by > 50%. Conclusions Anthropogenic O₃ and PM_2.5 contribute substantially to global premature mortality. PM_2.5 mortality estimates are about 50% higher than previous measurement-based estimates based on common assumptions, mainly because of methodologic differences. Specifically, we included rural populations, suggesting higher estimates; however, the coarse resolution of the global atmospheric model may underestimate urban PM_2.5 exposures.