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Overconfidence, risk aversion and individual financial decisions in experimental asset markets

机译:实验资产市场中的过度自信,规避风险和个人财务决策

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AbstractPrior experiments revealed that investors’ overconfidence can result in excessive trade and negative wealth effects. However, in most of these studies, informational asymmetries were part of the experimental design, and therefore no clear conclusion on whether the obtained results were driven by overconfidence or informational asymmetries could be made. The article addresses this issue by analysing individual financial decisions based on the study of Michailova and Schmidt, who ran an asset markets experiment with no informational asymmetries. Additionally, the study controls for differences in individual risk aversion. The data revealed that, in this setting, individual trading activity and performance were influenced by overconfidence only for female participants. Mistakes in future price forecasting, which were negatively correlated with overconfidence, partially accounted for this result. Risk aversion was uncorrelated with overconfidence and had no influence on experimental outcomes.
机译:摘要先前的实验表明,投资者的过度自信可能导致过度交易和负面财富影响。然而,在大多数这些研究中,信息不对称是实验设计的一部分,因此,对于所获得的结果是由过度自信还是信息不对称所致,没有明确的结论。本文根据米哈伊洛娃(Michailova)和施密特(Schmidt)的研究,通过分析个人财务决策来解决这个问题,他们进行了没有信息不对称的资产市场实验。此外,该研究控制了个体风险规避的差异。数据显示,在这种情况下,个人交易活动和业绩仅受女性参与者过度自信的影响。与过度自信负相关的未来价格预测错误,部分解释了这一结果。风险规避与过度自信无关,对实验结果没有影响。

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