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Causality between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: Evidence from Malaysia and Thailand

机译:汇率与股票价格之间的因果关系:来自马来西亚和泰国的证据

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This study analyses the causal relationship between exchange rates and stock prices for Thailand and Malaysia. By using daily data from 1993 to 2003, this study attempts to examine the relationship between exchange rates and stock prices in Thailand and Malaysia during pre and post financial crisis. The paper also investigates the long-run relationship between the above-mentioned variables using Johansen-Juselius (1990) cointegration test and short-run dynamic causal relationship by using Toda-Yamamoto (1995) procedure. Likewise, variance decompositions (VDCs) analysis is employed to improve the predictable portion of exchange rate (stock price) changes on the forecast error variance in stock prices (exchange rates). Data from Thailand demonstrates the results predicted by the portfolio balance approach: stock prices lead exchange rates in both pre-crisis and post-crisis periods; however, Malaysian findings support portfolio approach in post-crisis.
机译:这项研究分析了泰国和马来西亚的汇率与股票价格之间的因果关系。通过使用1993年至2003年的每日数据,本研究试图检验金融危机前后泰国和马来西亚的汇率与股票价格之间的关系。本文还使用Johansen-Juselius(1990)协整检验研究上述变量之间的长期关系,并使用Toda-Yamamoto(1995)程序研究短期动态因果关系。同样,采用方差分解(VDC)分析来改善汇率(股票价格)变化的可预测部分,以预测股票价格(汇率)的误差方差。来自泰国的数据证明了通过投资组合余额法预测的结果:在危机前和危机后时期,股票价格领先于汇率;但是,马来西亚的调查结果支持了危机后的投资组合方法。

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