Stocks management through application of demand forecast methods: a case study

摘要

The present study consists in assessing the feasibility of implementing demand forecasting techniques due to the optimization of inventory management, so that it is objective the reduce storage costs and to have the least amount of stationary material stock in a certain period. Data analysis was for application of techniques based on the real case of a multinational company in the segment of electronic and digital systems in the infrastructure area, which operates in the metropolitan region of S?o Paulo. The study aims to evaluate the behavior of the studied company demand, in order to demonstrate some forecast models for it and thus being able to identify the most appropriate method to get the highest possible degree of assertiveness. At a first moment, there will be a survey of data concerning the company's historical demand, including the forecast used at the latest period, and then to survey the state of the art discussed topic, in order to clarify the reader, and as a result: the analysis of the collected data and the implementation of demand forecasting techniques presented in bibliographic references. After performing an analysis of the naive method demand forecasting practiced by the company, was carried out the application of different forecasting methods and found out that the method that best suits the given demand was the moving average, which provided the optimization of cost of storage in approximately 63% of the one presented by the naive method and also a gain of approximately R $ 2,000,000.00 during the studied period, thus proving the effectiveness of demand forecasting application for inventory management.