Modeling Spatial Spillovers of Divorce in Senegal Using Spatial Durbin Model: A Maximum Likelihood Estimation Approach

摘要

Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) is one of the family of spatial autoregressive models. In this paper, we use the SDM model to determine the spatial spillovers of divorce in Senegal. The variable of interest is the rate of divorce and the explanatory variables are the rate of illiteracy and the average age at marriage in Senegal. The model parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood technique. The estimation of the autoregressive parameter is performed using numerical optimization of the concentrated log-likelihood of the SDM model. The results obtained showed that the rate of illiteracy and the average age at marriage have a real impact on the rate of divorce in Senegal. We also note that the departments of the country that are closed are more similar than the distant departments in relation to the divorce data. Direct and indirect effects were used to measure changes in the rate of divorce as a result of changes in the rate of illiteracy and the average age at marriage.