For CO&SUB&2&/SUB& Emission Trading in China, Can the Market Become a National One, Four Years after Creating Seven Local Markets?

摘要

In this paper, we assess the existing seven local pilot carbon emission trading schemes in China and analyse the factors determining whether China’s carbon market is successful in terms of handling substantial amounts of CO_(2) emissions rights, regulating the market and trading them at a reasonable price. The emission trading system is developing slowly in most of the participating provinces and cities. Prices tend to decline, while volumes trading slowly increase. The volatility is partially the result of regulation (the rights need to be renewed before a certain date) and partially due to government interventions in the market. Based on the assessment, recommendations are provided for China implementing a national carbon market, based on the experiences and lessons learnt from the seven local carbon emission trading schemes. Conditions for China to roll out the system and later improve the national emission trading scheme to replace the existing local emission trading schemes are formulated.