Development and prediction of the selected population movement indicators in the Czech Republic

摘要

The paper is aimed at the presentation of findings obtained in the study of the developmental trends of the population reproduction indicators in the territory of the Czech Republic in the reference period 1993–2003. The analysis of selected indicators is also aimed at a short-term extrapolation prediction. Developmental trends are specified of the population composition according to the main age groups, live births and natural increase of population. The population development in the reference period under study demonstrated increasing qualitative changes in the demographic behaviour of population after 1989. A characteristic feature of this stage of social development is the transition to the west-European model of reproduction behaviour intensified in part of the population by negative impacts of the social and economic transformation. A marked decrease in the number of live births and its point prediction for 2005 can bring about further irregularities in the age structure of population together with the development in the number of dead and external migration. Methods of regression and correlation analysis and development trends were applied for the mathematical-statistical analysis.