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Predicting financial distress of agriculture companies in EU

机译:预测欧盟农业公司的财务困境

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The objective of this paper is the prediction of financial distress (default of payment or insolvency) of 250 agriculture business companies in the EU from which 62 companies defaulted in 2014 with respect to lag of the used attributes. From many types of classification models, there was chosen the Logistic regression, the Support vector machines method with the RBF ANOVA kernel, the Decision Trees and the Adaptive Boosting based on the decision trees to acquire the best results. From the results, it is obvious that with the increasing distance to the bankruptcy, there decreases the average accuracy of the financial distress prediction and there is a greater difference between the active and distressed companies in terms of liquidity, rentability and debt ratios. The Decision trees and Adaptive Boosting offer a better accuracy for the distress prediction than the SVM and logit methods, what is comparable to the previous studies. From the total of 15 accounting variables, there were constructed classification trees by the Decision Trees with the inner feature selection method for the better visualization, what reduces the full data set only to 1 or 2 attributes: ROA and Long-term Debt to Total Assets Ratio in 2011, ROA and Current Ratio in 2012, ROA in 2013 for the discrimination of the distressed companies.
机译:本文的目的是预测欧盟250家农业商业公司的财务困境(付款或破产违约),其中有62家公司在2014年因使用的属性滞后而违约。从许多类型的分类模型中,选择Logistic回归,带有RBF ANOVA核的支持向量机方法,决策树和基于决策树的自适应Boosting以获得最佳结果。从结果可以明显看出,随着破产距离的增加,财务困境预测的平均准确性降低,活跃和陷入困境的公司之间在流动性,可出租性和债务比率方面的差异更大。与SVM和logit方法相比,决策树和Adaptive Boosting为遇险预测提供了更好的准确性,这与以前的研究相当。从总共15个会计变量中,决策树使用内部特征选择方法构造了分类树,以实现更好的可视化,这将整个数据集减少为1或2个属性:ROA和长期债务占总资产2011年的比率,资产回报率和2012年的流动比率,2013年的资产回报率是对受困公司的歧视。

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