Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts

摘要

This study examines the change in current 100-year hydrological droughtfrequencies in the Mediterranean in comparison to the 2070s as simulated bythe global model WaterGAP. The analysis considers socio-economic and climatechanges as indicated by the IPCC scenarios A2 and B2 and the global generalcirculation model ECHAM4. Under these conditions today's 100-year drought isestimated to occur 10 times more frequently in the future over a large partof the Northern Mediterranean while in North Africa, today's 100-yeardrought will occur less frequently. Water abstractions are shown to play aminor role in comparison to the impact of climate change, but can intensifythe situation.