Model system development and uncertainty for the provisionary management of extreme floods in large river basins

摘要

A research project is introduced in which a modellingsystem is being developed to quantify risks of extreme flooding in largeriver basins. In the system, computer models and modules are coupled tosimulate the functional chain: hydrology - hydraulics - polder diversion- dyke failure - flooding - damage estimate - risk assessment. In orderto reduce uncertainty in flood frequency analyses, data sets arecomplimented with information from historical chronicles and artwork.Probable maximum precipitation and discharge are calculated to indicateupper bounds of meteorological and hydrological extremes. Uncertaintyanalysis is investigated for different degrees of model complexity andcompared at different basin scales.