Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation in the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century based on documentary evidence

摘要

This paper applies the methods of historical climatology to present aclimate reconstruction for the area of the Burgundian Low Countries duringthe 15th century. The results are based on documentary evidence thathas been handled very carefully, especially with regard to the distinctionbetween contemporary and non-contemporary sources. Approximately 3000written records derived from about 100 different sources were examined andconverted into seasonal seven-degree indices for temperature andprecipitation. For the Late Middle Ages only a few climate reconstructionsexist. There are even fewer reconstructions which include spring and autumntemperature or any precipitation information at all. This paper therefore constitutes auseful contribution to the understanding of climate and weather conditionsin the less well researched but highly interesting 15th century. Theextremely cold winter temperatures during the 1430s and an extremely coldwinter in 1407/1408 are striking. Moreover, no other year in this century wasas hot and dry as 1473. At the beginning and the end of the 1480s and at thebeginning of the 1490s summers were considerably wetter than average.