Poland’s Public Finance Convergence with the Euro Area

摘要

Situation of Poland's public finances has been improving. Helped by solid economic growth in 2011, Poland has reduced its budget deficit in line with the Commission's recommendations. Contrary to earlier forecasts, in 2012 it was slightly above the ceiling of 3% of GDP. It should be further reduced to reach in 2015 the level of 1% of GDP in terms structural deficit. The slowdown of the economy in 2012 and probably in 2013 will not make this task easy, however. Public debt has risen steadily over the past few years but level has been in recent times still well below the 60% of GDP ceiling. The national reform programme and the convergence programme were adopted by Poland’s Council of Ministers on 25 April 2012. The convergence programme outlined in an integrated manner the fiscal consolidation efforts, the key structural reforms and the reforms that underpin macroeconomic stabilisation. In the medium to long term, Poland is faced with a number of challenges. A very low labour force participation rate, in particular of women, and the poor quality of vocational training and education are major concerns given an ageing population. The low level of public and private R&D spending, weak links between science and industry and the poor innovation performance call for improvements. Apart from programme of national reforms, crucial for future sustained economic growth and good performance of public finances, an additional factor stimulating activities towards fiscal improvement should be Poland’s participation in a strengthened economic governance architecture recently introduced in the EU. Euro adoption remains an important goal of Polish government. The uncertain situation in the euro zone has, however, postponed adoption of a clear timetable of joining the euro zone. The government decided that an additional condition to join the euro zone, apart from meeting the nominal convergence criteria (and legal conditions not discussed here), is stabilisation of the euro area situation.