A water quality management model considering impacts of water utilization and providing risk analysis under uncertainty: a case study of the Ankang section in Hanjiang River Basin, China

摘要

In this study, an interval-parameter chanced-constrained full-infinite programming (ICFP) model based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed for supporting water quality management under uncertainty (expressed as interval parameters, probability distribution, and functional intervals), and analyzing the reliability of satisfying (or the risk of violating) various constraints. The ICFP model was applied to investigate the utility of the model for managing industry development under water quality constraints in the Ankang section of the Hanjiang River Basin, which faces threats of point and nonpoint source pollution. The research area is one of the water sources of the South-to-North Water Diversion, which is a national strategic project aimed at mitigating the water shortage in north and northwest China. The results indicated that higher discharge amounts of chemical oxygen demand occur at the medicine manufacturing industry. Tradeoffs between economic benefits and system-failure risks were also examined. Alternative policy can be obtained from different combinations of decision variables within their lower and upper bounds, which are valuable for decision makers, who need to develop the desired regional economic plans while satisfying environmental requirements.